On-chain data tracking Bitcoin's unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) suggests that investor capitulation is underway—a pattern historically associated with bear market bottoms, according to analysts.
CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost noted on Saturday that the ratio of UTXOs spent in profit versus those spent at a loss has dropped to its lowest point in the current bear market cycle. "This is the first time this signal has triggered since the start of the correction," he said, adding that it indicates "the number of UTXOs spent at a loss is reaching significant levels, reflecting the start of a broader capitulation."
该指标的下降反映了 2023 年中期上一次熊市低点时的情况，当时比特币价格徘徊在 26,000 美元左右。 “这些时期对于长期投资者来说总是有利可图的，”达克福斯特强调。 “它们对应于大多数人放弃并失去兴趣的时刻。”不过，他警告说，触底过程通常会在较长的时间内展开。
分析师 DurdenBTC 也表达了同样的观点，他表示：“我一直在等待的底部信号刚刚被触发。” He highlighted that the UTXO profit-loss ratio has accurately marked every cycle low since 2016. "It will still feel terrible for weeks," he added. “如果在这里买东西很舒服，那么这个信号就不会存在。”
Darkfost further observed that long-term holders are entering a capitulation phase, as evidenced by the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) trending into negative territory for this cohort.不过，他指出，近期的抛售压力很大程度上源于短期持有者迅速将比特币存入交易所。
On-chain analytics firm Swissblock also weighed in, suggesting Bitcoin has likely passed the initial breakdown phase but remains in a base formation period.该公司表示：“价格正在稳定，但势头仍然严重负面，比特币冲动才刚刚恢复到中性。”
地缘政治紧张局势可能会加剧波动。 U.S. fighter jets conducted strikes on 10 Iranian military targets near the Strait of Hormuz late Saturday in response to an Iranian drone attack on a commercial vessel, according to U.S. Central Command.消息传出后，比特币在周日早盘交易中一度跌至 59,800 美元，然后在撰写本文时恢复至 60,100 美元。